What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 9%, implying a 9% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Politics

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Sam Bankman-Fried

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $225 Open interest $65.9K Event Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 12% · Low 7% · 7d -24.1pp · 30d -3.7pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

SAM Boston Beer Company

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.