polymarket
Sports
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Mexico
1%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 2% ·
Low 1%
· 7d +7.4pp
· 30d +38.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for Mexico winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup currently indicates a 1% probability, with a YES price of 0.01. This assessment is informed by known facts about the current state of Mexican football and the team's performance in recent international competitions. The market is asking whether Mexico will emerge victorious from the 2026 tournament, which is scheduled to take place between June and July 2026. Any developments that significantly improve or worsen Mexico's chances of winning would likely impact the price, with upward pressure coming from increased optimism about their prospects and downward pressure arising from decreased confidence in their ability to succeed.
Generated Jun 17, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.