polymarket
Sports
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Uruguay
1%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 2% ·
Low 1%
· 7d -38.1pp
· 30d -38.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market for Uruguay winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup currently indicates a 1% probability of occurrence, with a YES price of 0.01. This assessment is informed by known facts about Uruguay's performance in international soccer competitions and their chances of advancing through the tournament. The current price does not reflect any significant changes or developments that would impact Uruguay's likelihood of winning. A decrease in the YES price could be driven by Uruguay's elimination from the tournament, while an increase in the YES price might result from improved team performance or unexpected upsets in other matches.
Generated Jun 17, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.