Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner is currently pricing in a 2% probability of the USA winning the tournament. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the team's recent performance and the strength of their squad. The current price would increase if there were significant improvements to the team's roster or coaching staff, or if other teams experienced setbacks or injuries. Conversely, a decrease in the YES price could be driven by poor performances or injuries to key players on the USA team, or if other teams strengthen their squads through transfers or coaching changes. The market will close on July 20, 2026, and will resolve according to official information from FIFA or the tournament's governing body.