What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 14%, implying a 14% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Nirav Shah

Closes Aug 01, 2026 (22d) 24h volume 44.3K Open interest 54.2K Event Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

14%

implied YES probability

-4.0pp 24h

Last 3 days · High 18% · Low 12%

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 13.5¢

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.