What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Will it be confirmed that Sara Gideon is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?

Sara Gideon

Closes Aug 01, 2026 (22d) 24h volume 156.9K Open interest 49.4K Event Maine Democratic Senate nominee on Jul 31, 2026?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 3 days · High 1% · Low 1%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing Sara Gideon's confirmation as the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026 at a 2% probability, with a YES price of 0.01. This assessment is informed by known facts about the current state of the election, including the ongoing primary process and any relevant endorsements or controversies that may be influencing voter sentiment. The market's low confidence in Gideon's confirmation suggests that there are significant uncertainties surrounding her nomination prospects, which could be influenced by various factors such as the outcome of the primary, candidate debates, and external events that may impact voter decisions. A change in these dynamics could potentially shift the price up or down, with a decrease in probability indicating increased uncertainty or challenges to Gideon's nomination, while an increase would suggest growing confidence in her prospects.

Generated Jul 09, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
1.0¢	2302	2.0¢	67539
		3.0¢	10001
		10.0¢	5
		20.0¢	5000
		71.0¢	13

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 1.5¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.