What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 50%, implying a 50% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Jun 15, 2026

Closes Jun 16, 2026 (0d) 24h volume 154 Open interest 502.2K Event When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

50%

implied YES probability

Last 33 days · High 36% · Low 1% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d -83.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.