kalshi
Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?
Before Sep 1, 2026
62%
implied YES probability
-7.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 64 days ·
High 83% ·
Low 30%
· 7d +100.0pp
· 30d +42.2pp
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Oil may move through the Strait of Hormuz first, leaving fertilizer supplies stranded
MarketWatch · 13h ago
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Oil Tankers U-Turn, Rush to Middle East Before Hormuz Reopening
Bloomberg Markets · 25 min ago
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Shipping exec says industry needs assurances Strait of Hormuz will be safe
NPR Business · 7h ago
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Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
Bloomberg Economics · 7h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Investing.com · 12h ago
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69.0¢ | 1054 | 70.0¢ | 4443 | |
| 68.0¢ | 1470 | 71.0¢ | 4074 | |
| 67.0¢ | 1733 | 72.0¢ | 805 | |
| 66.0¢ | 2972 | 73.0¢ | 5722 | |
| 65.0¢ | 1092 | 74.0¢ | 423 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 69.5¢
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