kalshi
Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?
Before Aug 1, 2026
50%
implied YES probability
-4.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 64 days ·
High 81% ·
Low 19%
· 7d +161.9pp
· 30d +48.6pp
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
-
Oil may move through the Strait of Hormuz first, leaving fertilizer supplies stranded
MarketWatch · 11h ago
-
Shipping exec says industry needs assurances Strait of Hormuz will be safe
NPR Business · 5h ago
-
Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
Bloomberg Economics · 6h ago
-
Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Investing.com · 10h ago
-
Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Yahoo Finance · 10h ago
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.0¢ | 303 | 50.0¢ | 3373 | |
| 48.0¢ | 2043 | 51.0¢ | 520 | |
| 47.0¢ | 90 | 52.0¢ | 188 | |
| 46.0¢ | 28 | 53.0¢ | 803 | |
| 45.0¢ | 5000 | 54.0¢ | 5050 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 49.5¢
Trade on Kalshi
Open on Kalshi
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate
public order-book and trading data for analysis.
Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.