kalshi
Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?
Before Apr 1, 2027
86%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 64 days ·
High 95% ·
Low 72%
· 7d +17.3pp
· 30d +7.3pp
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Oil may move through the Strait of Hormuz first, leaving fertilizer supplies stranded
MarketWatch · 13h ago
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Oil Tankers U-Turn, Rush to Middle East Before Hormuz Reopening
Bloomberg Markets · 22 min ago
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Shipping exec says industry needs assurances Strait of Hormuz will be safe
NPR Business · 7h ago
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Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
Bloomberg Economics · 7h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Investing.com · 12h ago
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87.0¢ | 6 | 88.0¢ | 24 | |
| 86.0¢ | 179 | 89.0¢ | 150 | |
| 85.0¢ | 525 | 90.0¢ | 1038 | |
| 84.0¢ | 131 | 91.0¢ | 98 | |
| 83.0¢ | 6050 | 92.0¢ | 1172 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 87.5¢
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