kalshi
Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?
Before Oct 1, 2026
70%
implied YES probability
-4.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 63 days ·
High 87% ·
Low 42%
· 7d +65.2pp
· 30d +35.7pp
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Oil may move through the Strait of Hormuz first, leaving fertilizer supplies stranded
MarketWatch · 11h ago
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Shipping exec says industry needs assurances Strait of Hormuz will be safe
NPR Business · 5h ago
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Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
Bloomberg Economics · 6h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Investing.com · 10h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Yahoo Finance · 10h ago
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.0¢ | 689 | 77.0¢ | 5583 | |
| 75.0¢ | 5420 | 78.0¢ | 855 | |
| 74.0¢ | 1319 | 79.0¢ | 860 | |
| 73.0¢ | 1774 | 80.0¢ | 2636 | |
| 72.0¢ | 555 | 81.0¢ | 5733 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 76.5¢
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