What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 76%, implying a 76% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Nov 1, 2026

Closes Nov 01, 2026 (137d) 24h volume 2.7K Open interest 47.6K Event When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

76%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Last 8 days · High 81% · Low 51% · 7d +44.6pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.