kalshi
Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?
Before Jan 1, 2027
82%
implied YES probability
-3.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 92% ·
Low 59%
· 7d +33.9pp
· 30d +16.9pp
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Oil may move through the Strait of Hormuz first, leaving fertilizer supplies stranded
MarketWatch · 13h ago
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Oil Tankers U-Turn, Rush to Middle East Before Hormuz Reopening
Bloomberg Markets · 21 min ago
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Shipping exec says industry needs assurances Strait of Hormuz will be safe
NPR Business · 7h ago
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Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
Bloomberg Economics · 7h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Investing.com · 11h ago
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81.0¢ | 1071 | 82.0¢ | 1071 | |
| 80.0¢ | 7656 | 83.0¢ | 505 | |
| 79.0¢ | 865 | 84.0¢ | 537 | |
| 78.0¢ | 5746 | 85.0¢ | 1189 | |
| 77.0¢ | 4557 | 86.0¢ | 3151 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 81.5¢
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