kalshi
Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?
Before Jul 1, 2027
88%
implied YES probability
-2.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 63 days ·
High 96% ·
Low 78%
· 7d +12.7pp
· 30d +4.7pp
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Oil may move through the Strait of Hormuz first, leaving fertilizer supplies stranded
MarketWatch · 11h ago
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Shipping exec says industry needs assurances Strait of Hormuz will be safe
NPR Business · 5h ago
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Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
Bloomberg Economics · 6h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Investing.com · 10h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Yahoo Finance · 10h ago
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88.0¢ | 3694 | 89.0¢ | 104 | |
| 87.0¢ | 3004 | 90.0¢ | 2817 | |
| 86.0¢ | 1000 | 91.0¢ | 1305 | |
| 85.0¢ | 958 | 92.0¢ | 2550 | |
| 84.0¢ | 1100 | 93.0¢ | 3333 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 88.5¢
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