kalshi
Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?
Before Jul 1, 2026
14%
implied YES probability
-3.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 80% ·
Low 6%
· 7d +97.2pp
· 30d -39.1pp
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Oil may move through the Strait of Hormuz first, leaving fertilizer supplies stranded
MarketWatch · 13h ago
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Oil Tankers U-Turn, Rush to Middle East Before Hormuz Reopening
Bloomberg Markets · 25 min ago
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Shipping exec says industry needs assurances Strait of Hormuz will be safe
NPR Business · 7h ago
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Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
Bloomberg Economics · 7h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Investing.com · 12h ago
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.0¢ | 20682 | 15.0¢ | 2433 | |
| 13.0¢ | 8238 | 16.0¢ | 1749 | |
| 12.0¢ | 758 | 17.0¢ | 8968 | |
| 11.0¢ | 12887 | 18.0¢ | 16187 | |
| 10.0¢ | 397 | 19.0¢ | 6787 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 14.5¢
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