kalshi
Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 15, 2026?
Before Jul 15, 2026
32%
implied YES probability
-7.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 2 days ·
High 37% ·
Low 32%
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Oil may move through the Strait of Hormuz first, leaving fertilizer supplies stranded
MarketWatch · 13h ago
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Oil Tankers U-Turn, Rush to Middle East Before Hormuz Reopening
Bloomberg Markets · 25 min ago
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Shipping exec says industry needs assurances Strait of Hormuz will be safe
NPR Business · 7h ago
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Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy
Bloomberg Economics · 7h ago
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Oil prices fall 5% to 3-month low on hopes Strait of Hormuz will open
Investing.com · 12h ago
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.0¢ | 3121 | 32.0¢ | 1066 | |
| 30.0¢ | 5395 | 33.0¢ | 888 | |
| 29.0¢ | 3545 | 34.0¢ | 2271 | |
| 28.0¢ | 350 | 35.0¢ | 1271 | |
| 27.0¢ | 813 | 36.0¢ | 1715 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 31.5¢
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