What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 56%, implying a 56% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 15, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Barack Hussein Obama

chance of YES56% -7.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

64–64%

24h volume

1.1K

$1 contracts

Open interest

934

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.