kalshi
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Will Trump say "Stupid Question" before Jul 27, 2026?
Stupid Question
6%
implied YES probability
-1.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 6 days ·
High 45% ·
Low 9%
Other outcomes in this event
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AI analysis
The prediction market is currently pricing a 6% chance that Donald Trump will say "Stupid Question" before July 27, 2026. This assessment is informed by known facts about Trump's public speaking style and his tendency to respond to perceived criticism or questioning in a certain way. The current price does not reflect any specific event or incident that has occurred recently, but rather represents the market's overall expectation based on historical patterns. A significant change in this probability would require new information that challenges or reinforces Trump's behavior, such as a notable instance of him using the phrase "Stupid Question" in response to a question.
Generated Jul 26, 2026
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0¢ | 30 | 6.0¢ | 2140 | |
| 4.0¢ | 390 | 7.0¢ | 97 | |
| 3.0¢ | 779 | 8.0¢ | 1100 | |
| 2.0¢ | 977 | 9.0¢ | 2942 | |
| 1.0¢ | 955 | 10.0¢ | 649 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 5.5¢
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.