What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 26%, implying a 26% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

Above 7489.72

Closes Aug 03, 2026 (2d) 24h volume 2.3K Open interest 1.4K Event S&P 500 Daily Up/Down

26%

implied YES probability

+26.0pp 24h

Last 1 days · High 44% · Low 44%

Not enough price history yet.

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.