What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 5%, implying a 5% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 18, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Mentions

Event does not qualify

Closes Aug 18, 2026 (16d) 24h volume 200 Open interest 309 Event What will James Talarico say during The Rachel Maddow Show?

implied YES probability

-10.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 11% · Low 3%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.