What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 81%, implying a 81% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Afford / Affordable / Affordability

chance of YES81% -8.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

76–76%

24h volume

$1 contracts

Open interest

492

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.