What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 80%, implying a 80% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Dividend / Stimulus

chance of YES80% +10.5pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

75–75%

24h volume

187

$1 contracts

Open interest

341

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.