What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before August

Closes Aug 01, 2026 (45d) 24h volume 59.3K Open interest 447.2K Event US-Iran nuclear deal?

12%

implied YES probability

-14.0pp 24h

Last 90 days · High 66% · Low 17% · 7d +50.0pp · 30d 0.0pp

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 11.5¢

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.