Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?
chance of YES2%
-0.5pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
1–18%
24h volume
9.2K
Open interest
800.8K
Bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0¢ | 102,570 | 2.0¢ | 144,816 |
| 3.0¢ | 2,394 | ||
| 4.0¢ | 400 | ||
| 5.0¢ | 655 | ||
| 6.0¢ | 17,585 |
Mid 1.5¢ · spread 1.0¢
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Before Jan 20, 202938%193
Before Jan 1, 202832%1.7K
Before Mar 1, 202716%1.1K
Before Jan 1, 202710%12.2K
Before Dec 1, 20266%1.8K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 99¢ | 5,585 | $6K | |
| NO | 99¢ | 1,296 | $1K | |
| NO | 98¢ | 21,445 | $21K | |
| NO | 98¢ | 3,333 | $3K | |
| NO | 98¢ | 5,555 | $5K | |
| NO | 98¢ | 2,222 | $2K | |
| YES | 3¢ | 139,723 | $5K | |
| NO | 99¢ | 6,242 | $6K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.