Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?
chance of YES10%
-4.9pp in 24h
Price range (120d)
6–26%
24h volume
12.2K
Open interest
473.3K
Bid / ask
8¢ / 11¢
Odds and volume
daily, 120 daysLine: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.
Order book
top 5| Bid | Size | Ask | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.1¢ | 1,601 | 11.0¢ | 5 |
| 8.0¢ | 10,454 | 12.0¢ | 1,550 |
| 7.5¢ | 3 | 13.0¢ | 1,869 |
| 7.3¢ | 485 | 14.0¢ | 3,000 |
| 7.0¢ | 22,251 | 15.0¢ | 4,968 |
Mid 9.6¢ · spread 2.9¢
Open on Kalshi
We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.
Other outcomes in this event
Before Jan 20, 202938%205
Before Jan 1, 202832%1.7K
Before Mar 1, 202715%177
Before Dec 1, 20266%1.8K
Before Nov 1, 20262%8.2K
Recent large orders
≥ $1K · 14 days| When | Side | Price | Contracts | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 89¢ | 11,555 | $10K | |
| NO | 88¢ | 2,000 | $2K | |
| NO | 88¢ | 2,000 | $2K | |
| NO | 87¢ | 2,590 | $2K | |
| NO | 89¢ | 6,200 | $6K | |
| NO | 88¢ | 1,500 | $1K | |
| NO | 88¢ | 1,928 | $2K | |
| NO | 87¢ | 5,000 | $4K | |
| NO | 87¢ | 5,000 | $4K | |
| NO | 87¢ | 3,417 | $3K |
Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.