What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 78%, implying a 78% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 20, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Jan 20, 2029

Closes Jan 20, 2029 (948d) 24h volume 230 Open interest 23.2K Event US-Iran nuclear deal?

78%

implied YES probability

+3.0pp 24h

Last 63 days · High 89% · Low 68% · 7d +1.3pp · 30d +6.9pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.