What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 40%, implying a 40% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before October

Closes Oct 01, 2026 (106d) 24h volume 6.2K Open interest 56.6K Event US-Iran nuclear deal?

40%

implied YES probability

-7.0pp 24h

Last 27 days · High 85% · Low 25% · 7d +50.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.