Medicinova, Inc.(MNOV)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
Snapshot
$1.24
- 52-Week Range
- $1.17 – $1.96
- YTD
- -6.77%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 45.04
- Straddle Price
- $0.80
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.01
- Market Cap
- $0.1B
Fair Value
-17.0% vs price
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.03% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 10.01% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +346.0pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +30.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.10 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.0B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -29.7% |
| Book / Price | 62.7% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -1594.0% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 3/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $1.39 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $1.35 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 929.9% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.0B |
| Market Cap | $0B |
Peers used for multiples: ABT, PFE, REGN, TEVA
(SIC-code peers; ETF co-membership was sector-incoherent)
Blended Fair Value
$1.02
Current Price
$1.23
Deviation
-17.0%
Forward-Return Rank
SHORT
gates ✓
?
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -2.3% | +0.18 | -0.56 | 66.9% | — |
| 42d | -4.2% | +0.07 | -0.56 | 66.9% | — |
| 63d | -4.1% | +0.12 | -0.56 | 66.9% | — |
Expected α = forward-return point estimate vs SPY (e.g., +7.5% means the predictor expects this stock to outperform SPY by 7.5% over that horizon).
For SHORT direction the model uses a different ranking metric (conviction-weighted deviation, not the LGBM prediction); Expected α is shown for reference.
⚠ flags rows where Expected α disagrees with the FV direction — two independent signals are in conflict; conviction is low even if rank looks extreme.
Forward-Return Rank. A proprietary ensemble of a machine-learning forward-return model and a conviction-weighted fundamental score, ranked cross-sectionally each day across the S&P 500 (and broader universes on the screener). Each stock is scored at three horizons (21/42/63 trading days). "Active" = top/bottom 5% AND all risk filters pass. Backtested mean alpha vs SPY on active picks: 21d LONG +13.4%, 63d +34.9% (S&P 500, walk-forward). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Value vs momentum conflict ⚠. The "FV direction" (long/short) comes from the fundamentals-based engine — price vs intrinsic value. The "Expected α" comes from a separate machine-learning predictor trained on ~12 features (sector, options-implied move, beta, institutional flow, etc.). Sometimes the two disagree: a stock is overvalued by fundamentals but the predictor expects it to keep outperforming (sector or momentum tailwinds). When all 3 horizons disagree, treat the direction signal as low-conviction — neither model is strongly recommending a position.
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 22.1× · 4 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 12.8× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/B | $2.00 | 50% | median 2.5× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/S | $0.04 | 50% | median 2.9× · 4 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $1.39 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | n/a | 0% |
As of 2026-06-12 · updated 2026-06-12 20:59:55.687000
Info
- Industry (SIC)
- PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATIONS (2834)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $0.1B
MediciNova Inc is a biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases with unmet medical needs and a commercial focus on the United States (U.S.) market. It is currently focused on developing MN-166 (ibudilast) for neurological and other disorders such as progressive multiple sclerosis (MS), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy, degenerative cervical myelopathy, glioblastoma, and prevention of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); and MN-001 (tipelukast) for fibrotic and other metabolic disorders such …
Price History
Seasonality
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +3.43% | 6 |
| Feb | -9.67% | 6 |
| Mar | +0.33% | 6 |
| Apr | -3.05% | 6 |
| May | -2.21% | 6 |
| Jun | -0.01% | 6 |
| Jul | -5.30% | 5 |
| Aug | -1.65% | 5 |
| Sep | -2.25% | 5 |
| Oct | -7.13% | 5 |
| Nov | +7.01% | 5 |
| Dec | -13.47% | 5 |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $1.34
SMA 50: $1.38
SMA 200: $1.41
Current: $1.23
EMA 12: $1.30
EMA 26: $1.34
MACD: -0.0358 | Signal: -0.0097
BEARISH
ADX (14): 17.33
RANGE
+DI: 13.92
−DI: 28.86
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 29.38
OVERSOLD
Stoch %K: 5.00
Stoch %D: 3.33
Williams %R: -100.00
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $1.43
BB Lower: $1.24
OVERSOLD
OBV: 53,026,819
Vol SMA 20: 26,843
Vol ROC: -6.16%
ATR: $0.04
True Range: $0.05
HV 20: 27.2%
HV 30: 27.1%
HV 60: 40.6%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated: 2026-06-12T21:15:19.986000
Date Range: 2024-06-14T00:00:00 – 2026-06-12T00:00:00
AI Analysis
Choose Frenzy-Fast™ for quick analysis or Frenzy-Pro™ for comprehensive analysis.
Analysis includes technical indicators, news sentiment, risk assessment, and specific price levels to watch.
News
Earnings History
1 of 1 under expected move
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | unknown | 43.62% | 0.00% | 0.00x | Within |
Options Activity
- IV Rank (30D)
- 45.04
- IV Rank (7D)
- 0
- Avg IV
- 387.2%
- Straddle (30D)
- $0.80
- Straddle (7D)
- $0.65
- P/C Volume
- 0.01
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.36
- Correlation (SPY)
- 6.6%
- R²
- 0.00
- Ann. Volatility
- 66.7%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.3%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-03-31
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 49,094,294 (as of 2026-03-31)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
Insider Activity
Latest: 2026-01-20
Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | YUICHI IWAKI | President and CEO | Grant (A) | +450,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-01-20 | Kazuko Matsuda | Chief Medical Officer | Grant (A) | +350,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-06-20 | Nicole Lemerond | Director | Grant (A) | +20,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-06-20 | Hideki Nagao | Director | Grant (A) | +20,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-06-20 | CAROLYN BEAVER | Director | Grant (A) | +20,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-02-14 | Hideki Nagao | Director | Grant (A) | +24,500 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-02-14 | YUICHI IWAKI | President and CEO | Grant (A) | +100,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-02-14 | Nicole Lemerond | Director | Grant (A) | +24,500 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-02-14 | Kazuko Matsuda | Chief Medical Officer | Grant (A) | +100,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-02-14 | CAROLYN BEAVER | Director | Grant (A) | +24,500 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-01-10 | Kazuko Matsuda | Chief Medical Officer | Grant (A) | +300,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-01-10 | YUICHI IWAKI | President and CEO | Grant (A) | +400,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2024-06-12 | Hideki Nagao | Director | Grant (A) | +20,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2024-06-12 | Nicole Lemerond | Director | Grant (A) | +20,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2024-06-12 | CAROLYN BEAVER | Director | Grant (A) | +20,000 opt | — | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
Insider Holdings
13 insiders · @ $1.23
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YUICHI IWAKI | President and CEO | 1,091,933 | $1.34M | $174.1K | 37 | 2026-01-20 |
| 2 | Masatsune Okajima | VP and Head of Japanese Office | 935,530 | $1.15M | $0 | 17 | 2019-03-04 |
| 3 | Tatsuo Izumi | Director | 759,700 | $934.4K | $433.5K | 7 | 2013-12-13 |
| 4 | Kazuko Matsuda | Chief Medical Officer | 322,996 | $397.3K | $14.5K | 27 | 2026-01-20 |
| 5 | Yutaka Kobayashi | Director | 106,800 | $131.4K | $467.2K | 16 | 2020-06-17 |
| 6 | Geoffrey OBrien | Vice President | 48,318 | $59.4K | -$26.4K | 15 | 2024-01-11 |
| 7 | Hiroaki Shigeta | Director | 45,000 | $55.4K | $0 | 5 | 2012-05-15 |
| 8 | Michael E Kalafer | Chief Medical Officer | 31,744 | $39.0K | $102.1K | 3 | 2009-07-30 |
| 9 | Yoshio Ishizaka | Director | 15,000 | $18.4K | $40.1K | 7 | 2019-06-11 |
| 10 | David D O'Toole | Director | 5,000 | $6.2K | $8.9K | 2 | 2012-05-30 |
| 11 | MICHAEL DENIS COFFEE | Chief Business Officer | 4,000 | $4.9K | $0 | 4 | 2013-05-15 |
| 12 | Kirk William Johnson | Chief Scientific Officer | 1,700 | $2.1K | $0 | 5 | 2013-05-15 |
| 13 | Arlene Morris | Director | 1,000 | $1.2K | -$28.9K | 7 | 2013-05-23 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
ETF Holders
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/B Ratio | 1.6 |
| P/S Ratio | 105.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | -2.8 |
| TTM Revenue | $0.0B |
| TTM Net Income | $-0.0B |
| TTM EPS | $-0.23 |
| ROE | -29.7% |