What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 40%, implying a 40% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Health

At least 4500

Closes Jan 01, 2029 (883d) 24h volume 83 Open interest 687 Event What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

40%

implied YES probability

-4.0pp 24h

Last 8 days · High 50% · Low 35% · 7d -14.0pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.