What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Health

At least 5000

Closes Jan 01, 2029 (929d) 24h volume 199 Open interest 14.2K Event What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

30%

implied YES probability

Last 75 days · High 46% · Low 29% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d -11.4pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.