What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 32%, implying a 32% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Health

At least 5000

Closes Jan 01, 2029 (883d) 24h volume 125 Open interest 11.3K Event What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?

32%

implied YES probability

Last 47 days · High 36% · Low 28% · 7d +3.3pp · 30d +3.3pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.