What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 76%, implying a 76% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 04, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Closes Oct 04, 2027 (381d) 24h volume 642 Open interest 18.3K Event Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

76%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 51 days · High 96% · Low 64% · 7d -8.6pp · 30d -9.8pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.