kalshi
Elections
Who will win the governorship in California?
Xavier Becerra
96%
implied YES probability
+0.7pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 96% ·
Low 41%
· 7d +0.1pp
· 30d +4.3pp
Other outcomes in this event
AI analysis
The prediction market is currently indicating a high degree of confidence in one candidate winning the governorship in California, with a YES price of 0.96, implying a probability of approximately 96%. This suggests that market participants believe this outcome is highly likely based on current information and trends. Known facts informing the current price include recent polling data and endorsements from influential figures in the state. A significant shift in these factors or new developments could potentially alter the price, causing it to move upward if the likelihood of the predicted outcome increases or downward if the probability decreases. The market will close on November 3rd, 2027, at 15:00:00Z, providing a final opportunity for participants to adjust their positions before the event is settled.
Generated Jul 29, 2026
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95.7¢ | 1000 | 95.8¢ | 52 | |
| 95.3¢ | 1000 | 95.9¢ | 1040 | |
| 95.2¢ | 46 | 96.2¢ | 40 | |
| 95.0¢ | 11 | 96.3¢ | 1426 | |
| 94.9¢ | 140 | 96.4¢ | 100 |
Spread 0.1¢ · Mid 95.8¢
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.