What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 100%, implying a 100% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

K KalshiSports

Merna Refaat

Settles Oct 16, 2026 (13d) All outcomes: Refaat vs Moreno

chance of YES100%

Price range (13h)

57–99%

24h volume

371.5K

$1 contracts

Open interest

276.2K

contracts outstanding

Bid / ask

$213K

100% on YES

hourly, 13h

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 2, 5:50 PM ET	YES	99¢	1,421	$1K
Oct 2, 5:50 PM ET	YES	97¢	3,085	$3K
Oct 2, 5:49 PM ET	YES	97¢	3,471	$3K
Oct 2, 5:49 PM ET	YES	96¢	3,012	$3K
Oct 2, 5:49 PM ET	YES	95¢	1,522	$1K
Oct 2, 5:47 PM ET	YES	98¢	2,556	$2K
Oct 2, 5:46 PM ET	YES	95¢	5,244	$5K
Oct 2, 5:45 PM ET	YES	94¢	1,189	$1K
Oct 2, 5:45 PM ET	YES	93¢	1,519	$1K
Oct 2, 5:45 PM ET	YES	91¢	2,058	$2K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.