What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 30, 2036. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Social

Between 2025 and 2035?

Closes Dec 30, 2036 (3849d) 24h volume 45 Open interest 1.7K Event Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?

18%

implied YES probability

+5.0pp 24h

Last 13 days · High 21% · Low 12% · 7d +10.5pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.