Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early?

The prediction market is currently pricing in an 18% chance that Mitch McConnell will resign his office before the midterms. This assessment is informed by known facts such as McConnell's age and the typical retirement patterns of Senate leaders. The current price does not reflect any specific event or development, but rather a general expectation based on historical trends. A significant change in this probability would require new information that challenges or confirms McConnell's commitment to serving out his term. For example, if McConnell were to announce his intention to retire early, the YES price would likely increase, while a statement reaffirming his commitment to serving out his term could lead to a decrease in the YES price.