What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 76%, implying a 76% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Above 65

chance of YES76% +5.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

54–71%

· 7d +16 pts

24h volume

737

$1 contracts

Open interest

7.7K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$6K

100% on YES

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Sep 30, 5:43 PM ET	YES	68¢	1,567	$1K
Sep 29, 7:35 PM ET	YES	63¢	2,705	$2K
Sep 27, 9:17 PM ET	YES	62¢	5,201	$3K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.