What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 8%, implying a 8% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

Ceasefire

chance of YES8% -21.0pp in 24h

Price range (120d)

18–18%

24h volume

207

$1 contracts

Open interest

232

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

—

none recorded

daily, 120 days

Not enough trading history to chart yet.

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.