What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 93%, implying a 93% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

eBay

chance of YES93% +56.0pp in 24h

Price range (2d)

35–91%

24h volume

3.2K

$1 contracts

Open interest

2.4K

contracts outstanding

Large orders (14d)

$1K

100% on YES

hourly, 2d

Line: hourly closing YES price (= implied probability). Bars: contracts traded.

Open on Kalshi

We don't execute trades; odds are aggregated from public data.

≥ $1K · 14 days

When	Side	Price	Contracts	Size
Oct 3, 8:36 PM ET	YES	99¢	1,422	$1K

Orders stitched together from Kalshi's anonymous fills.