Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

The prediction market is asking whether fewer than 50 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20 and July 26. The current price for a "yes" outcome implies a 4% probability that this threshold will be met. Known facts informing the current price include historical data on ship traffic through the strait, which has averaged around 70-80 vessels per week in recent years. A significant decrease in ship traffic would likely drive the price up, while an increase or sustained levels of traffic similar to recent averages would push the price down. Any changes to global trade patterns, economic conditions, or regional tensions could impact the number of ships transiting the strait and thus influence the market's assessment of this outcome.