polymarket Science

Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

1st hottest
Closes Jul 31, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $1.2K Open interest $39.4K Event 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
76%
implied YES probability
+10.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 27 days · High 94% · Low 45% · 7d -32.4pp
94%45%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Other outcomes in this event

3rd hottest
15% YES
24h vol $36
2nd hottest
9% YES
24h vol $20
4th or lower
2% YES
24h vol $517

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.