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Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
December 31, 2026
4%
implied YES probability
-0.7pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 14% ·
Low 2%
· 7d -41.1pp
· 30d -9.9pp
How this market resolves
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Other outcomes in this event
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.