polymarket Science

Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in July 2026?

1.10–1.14ºC
Closes Aug 01, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $22 Open interest $13.5K Event July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 46 days · High 44% · Low 0% · 7d +20.0pp · 30d -98.1pp
44%0%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Other outcomes in this event

1.20–1.24ºC
77% YES
24h vol $30
1.15–1.19ºC
17% YES
24h vol $191
1.25–1.29ºC
5% YES
24h vol $12
>1.29ºC
1% YES
24h vol $16
<1.10ºC
0% YES
24h vol $12

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.