What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 68%, implying a 68% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 09, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Economics

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Closes Dec 09, 2026 (129d) 24h volume $49.5K Open interest $1.6M Event Fed rate hike in 2026?

68%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 78% · Low 16% · 7d -7.0pp · 30d +22.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing a 68% probability that the Federal Reserve will increase the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at some point between January 1, 2026 and its December meeting in 2026. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the Fed's historical tendency to raise interest rates during periods of economic growth. The current price would likely decrease if there were signs of a slowing economy or if the Fed were to signal a more dovish approach to monetary policy. Conversely, an increase in inflationary pressures or a strengthening economy could drive the price upward. The market will resolve on December 9, 2026, based on the outcome of the Fed's rate decision following its December meeting.

Generated Jul 30, 2026

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.