polymarket Economics

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Closes Dec 09, 2026 (174d) 24h volume $45.6K Open interest $637.7K Event Fed rate hike in 2026?
34%
implied YES probability
-2.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 59% · Low 12% · 7d -38.5pp · 30d +6.3pp
59%12%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.