polymarket
Economics
Fed rate hike in 2026?
96%
implied YES probability
+2.9pp 24h
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 96% ·
Low 46%
· 7d +35.5pp
· 30d +105.4pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent news mentioning this market
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FTSE 100 Live: Traders Trim BOE Rate-Hike Bets After Inflation Data
Bloomberg Markets · 2h ago
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Inflation Data Points to Rate Hike: JPMorgan's Rasid
Bloomberg Markets · 4h ago
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Goldman flips on Fed rate hike, then backtracks on forecast
TheStreet · 5h ago
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U.S. stock futures drift higher with Fed rate hike in focus
Investing.com · 7h ago
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Why a Federal Reserve rate hike could be a ‘rare win’ for your retirement money
MarketWatch · 11h ago
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.