polymarket
Finance
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
September 30
4%
implied YES probability
-0.7pp 24h
Price history
Last 54 days ·
High 39% ·
Low 2%
· 7d -46.8pp
· 30d -46.8pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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SpaceX and Tesla Are Considering a Mega Merger -- Here's What Investors Need to Know
Motley Fool · 20h ago
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Key synergies of potential Tesla and SpaceX merger
Investing.com · 21h ago
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SpaceX Is Down 19% From Its IPO Price. Tesla's History Suggests This May Happen Next
Yahoo Finance · 1h ago
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SpaceX Is Down 19% From Its IPO Price. Tesla's History Suggests This May Happen Next
Motley Fool · 2h ago
AI analysis
The prediction market is asking whether Tesla and SpaceX will officially announce a merger by September 30, 2026. The current price indicates a 12% probability of this event occurring. Known facts that inform the current price include the recent rumors and speculation surrounding a potential partnership between the two companies. If either company makes an announcement about a merger or acquisition within the market's timeframe, it would likely drive the price up. Conversely, if no such announcement is made by September 30, the price could decrease.
Generated Jun 30, 2026
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.