Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Settles Jan 01, 2028 (426d) All outcomes: Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

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Preview
chance of YES0%
Price range (120d)
0–7%
30d -99 pts · 7d -92 pts
24h volume
—
USDC traded
Open interest
$174.1K
contracts outstanding
Large orders (14d)
—
none recorded

Odds and volume

daily, 120 days

Line: daily closing YES price (= implied probability).

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How it settles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market odds are not forecasts or investment advice. See Terms §17.

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