polymarket
Science
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
0
0%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 9 days ·
High 68% ·
Low 0%
· 7d -99.9pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
-
Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Saturday, August 1, 2026: Rates higher than Friday
Yahoo Finance · 6h ago
-
After FIVE 50%+ wins in July, a new list of AI picks for August IS LIVE NOW
Investing.com · 8h ago
-
AI Stocks Cracked In July, New S&P 500 Challenges Emerge In August
Seeking Alpha News · 20h ago
Trade on Polymarket
Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate
public order-book and trading data for analysis.
Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.