What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Finance

Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Microsoft

Closes Sep 30, 2026 (14d) 24h volume $47 Open interest $34.1K Event 3rd Largest Company end of September?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 49 days · High 26% · Low 2% · 7d -18.0pp · 30d -48.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

MSFT Microsoft Corp

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.