What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 0%, implying a 0% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Weather

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 16?

29°C

Closes Sep 16, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $10.1K Open interest $38.7K Event Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?

implied YES probability

-9.4pp 24h

Price history

Last 3 days · High 8% · Low 0%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.