polymarket
Economics
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
3.5–3.9%
24%
implied YES probability
+19.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 9 days ·
High 26% ·
Low 4%
· 7d +28.1pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
-
South Korea’s 22% Crypto Tax Crashes Trading Volume
Yahoo Finance · 4h ago
-
Earnings call transcript: Muthoot Finance posts strong Q1 2026 growth, shares rise
Investing.com · 5h ago
-
Earnings call transcript: Divi’s Laboratories posts strong q1 2026 growth
Investing.com · 7h ago
-
South Korea exports beat forecasts in July on AI chip demand
Investing.com · 14h ago
-
Why South Korea’s won is one of world’s best performers
Financial Times · 14h ago
Trade on Polymarket
Open on Polymarket
Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate
public order-book and trading data for analysis.
Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.