polymarket
Finance
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?
5.10%
59%
implied YES probability
+1.2pp 24h
Price history
Last 14 days ·
High 53% ·
Low 4%
· 7d +1415.7pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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What Comes Next, Now that the 10-Year Treasury Yield Has Crossed 5%?
WSJ Markets · 11h ago
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20-year Treasury auction hits record yield as foreign demand plunges
Seeking Alpha · 13h ago
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Wall Street ends lower as oil spikes and the benchmark Treasury yield breaches 5%
Reuters · 16h ago
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Fed, Bessent Fight For Credibility As 10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5%
IBD · 18h ago
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Dow drops 450 points as 10-year Treasury yield hits 5%
Yahoo Finance · 18h ago
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