What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 97%, implying a 97% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Crypto

Over $1.5B crypto hack value in 2026?

>$1.5B

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (115d) 24h volume $2.0K Open interest $3.6K Event Total crypto hack value in 2026?

97%

implied YES probability

+7.6pp 24h

Price history

Last 61 days · High 92% · Low 48% · 7d +8.3pp · 30d +34.8pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks The total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026 If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used. If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.

Other outcomes in this event

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.